No! Not another crowd-esque trend! Don't worry; CROWD MINING is simply a moniker for how we see crowd-based business concepts evolving in 2008. But first let's take a look at some of the 'crowd pleasers' we enjoyed tracking this year:
Remember SellaBand, which lets fans sponsor unknown bands and artists by buying the band's shares or parts? (Once a band has raised USD 50,000 by selling 5,000 parts, SellaBand sets up a professional recording session. The recorded songs are sold to new fans, and both the artists and owners of their parts (Believers) receive a share of the income generated through music sales and advertising revenues.) They're certainly having fun: a few weeks ago, Believers who own parts in Cubworld, Nemesea, Second Person and Maitreya received their first payout, which was transferred to their Believer Balance. While the first payout wasn't massive (in SellaBand's words: "Enough to buy a beer at the pub, or maybe even a round or two"), it's a sign that SellaBand's crowdfunding and crowdrewarding model is working as planned. Ad revenues are expected to grow over the next few months, as SellaBand is working on deals with media agencies for countries outside their main three markets—the Netherlands, United States and United Kingdom. One to watch in 2008.
MyFootballClub, which launched in May 2007, recently announced that they've agreed to buy a controlling stake in Ebbsfleet United FC, with the option to buy the the remaining share in the future. To refresh your memory: in less than three months, MyFootballClub signed up 50,000 people willing to pay a GBP 35 membership fee to buy and manage a soccer team with a crowd of other dedicated fans. MyFootballClub members will vote on player selection, transfers and all other major decisions. When it got down to picking a team to buy, MyFootballClub was approached by nine football club owners and also sought contact with several others. Some of the crowd's favorite clubs didn't make the cut, because they had too much debt or were too regional. One of the reasons for picking Ebbsfleet United is that it stands a good chance to reach the national Football League. We'll definitely keep score of this one in 2008. 
P2P banking pioneers Zopa and Prosper are still doing well, in fact, P2P banking is an excellent example of how fast a new concept can spread, and also how much opportunity remains in turning consumers into mini-banks. Quick recap: peer-to-peer lending marketplaces allow people to lend money directly to others, cutting out banks and other middlemen. Which means better interest rates for borrowers and higher returns for lenders. Described as eBay for loans, the P2P money exchanges work as follows: borrowers list loan details and a personal profile, and lenders bid on the loan. Lowest interest rates win. Lenders bid in increments and minimize their risk by bidding on numerous loans. A study by Online Banking Report predicts that by 2011 person-to-person lending in the US could surpass 100,000 loans a year, worth more than USD 1 billion. Unlike eBay, which can connect buyers and sellers from around the world, peer-to-peer lending is generally bound by local financial regulations. Which means there's ample room for national or regional versions. Besides Zopa and Prosper, here’s what was out there last time we looked, from the promising to the obscure, and from the established to ‘coming soon’:
So... lots of innovation going on, yet there’s plenty of room for a second player in all of these markets; and dozens of countries don’t yet have a P2P banking brand. And what about the many other financial concepts waiting to be explored, from crowd investments (check out You Be The VC) to insurance plays? Will more consumers become comfortable with these concepts? Will big banks step in? This one too is all yours in 2008 ;-)
Now, let's go back to CROWD MINING: when co-creating, co-funding, co-buying, co-designing, co-managing *anything* with 'crowds', the emphasis in 2008 will move from just getting the masses in, to mining those crowds for the rough and polished diamonds. How to do that? Shower them with love, respect and heaps of money, of course. Two examples, from Netflix and Google, setting the standards for CROWD MINING in 2008:
Still going strong: Netflix, the DVD rental site, is offering a Grand Prize of USD 1 million to the individual who can substantially improve the accuracy of predictions about how much someone is going to love a movie based on their movie preferences. From their site (great copy if you ever want to set up something similar for your own brand): “Netflix is all about connecting people to the movies they love. To help customers find those movies, we’ve developed our world-class movie recommendation system: Cinematch. Now there are a lot of interesting alternative approaches to how Cinematch works that we haven’t tried. We’re curious whether any of these can beat Cinematch by making better predictions.
So, we thought we’d make a contest out of finding the answer. It’s 'easy', really. We provide you with a lot of anonymous rating data, and a prediction accuracy bar that is 10% better than what Cinematch can do on the same training data set. If you develop a system that we judge most beats that bar on the qualifying test set we provide, you get serious money and the bragging rights. But (and you knew there would be a catch, right?) only if you share your method with us and describe to the world how you did it and why it works. To keep things interesting, in addition to the Grand Prize, we’re also offering a USD 50,000 Progress Prize each year the contest runs. It goes to the team whose system we judge shows the most improvement over the previous year’s best accuracy bar on the same qualifying test set. No improvement, no prize."
To keep things transparent, progress can be monitored on an online leaderboard. So far, more than 27,000 contestants from 161 countries have submitted their guesses, with the winner for 2007 being Team KorBell for their October 2007 submission, achieving an 8.43% improvement over Cinematch, which netted them the USD 50,000 Progress Prize. Now, they got close, but not close enough, which means the USD 1 million grand prize is still up for grabs ;-)
The Open Handset Alliance's most prominent member, Google, is developing Android: the first complete, open, and free mobile platform. To support the quest for apps that surprise and delight mobile users, to be created by developers around the world, Google has launched the Android Developer Challenge, which will provide USD 10 million in awards for innovative applications. The first part of the challenge (submissions are accepted from January 2 through March 3, 2008), will reward 50 entries with USD 25,000 to fund further development. Those selected will then be eligible for even greater recognition via ten USD 275,000 awards and ten USD 100,000 awards.
So... What's your brand's biggest challenge (or opportunity), and what kind of dough would you be willing to dole out to have brilliant crowds solve it for you in 2008?
Sure, there's much, much more in 2008 that's worthy of your attention. But for now, take any of the eight trends above, sit down with your colleagues and/or clients, and figure out how, in 2008, to come up with at least one new premium product, one 'snack' version of an existing product, two or three major tweaks to your ecommerce presence, one eco-iconic innovation, two or three marketing campaigns that are about aiding consumers, not stalking them, introducing one MIY concept, and asking the rest of the world for help with at least one of your company's major opportunities or challenges.
For some help, don't forget our 'How to Apply Trends' checklist:
- Vision—Do these trends have the potential to influence or shape your company's vision?
- New business concepts—Can these trends point you to new business concepts, or entirely new ventures?
- New products, services, experiences—Can these trends inspire you to add 'something' new for a certain customer segment?
- Marketing, advertising, PR—Will these trends help you speak the language of those consumers that are already 'living' a trend?
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