4. ONLINE OXYGEN (part xiv)

Ah, the Online Revolution, the mega-trend that keeps on giving, one that single-handedly dominates the 'connecting sphere'. While Web 2.0 has already single-handledly created young brands that are now bigger and more valuable (at least on paper) than many an old economy stalwart, Web 3.0 and 4.0 and 5.0 guarantee enough motion for this innovation-orgasm to continue uninterrupted for years to come. Five years ago, we introduced ONLINE OXYGEN as the engine behind all this excitement: control-craving consumers needing online access as much as they need oxygen.

Fast forward to 2008, when we would need a thousand pages/screens to highlight every noteworthy online sub-trend and Big Idea to watch; the Joosts and Androids and Spores and ordering burgers in Seoul by RFID and the hundreds of yet-unknown start-ups that are about to make an appearance on TechCrunch. So instead, we'll look at a few developments that will spread and encourage ONLINE OXYGEN even further in the next few years to come.

If there's one device that's going to introduce another few hundred million people to the online world, it's the phone. And yes, initiatives like Google's Android and 'their bidding on the 700MHz band' and WiMax and so on are definitely going to speed things up. We know this is not a new insight, and nor will it happen overnight in 2008, but if you're inclined to look beyond 2008, consider this:

• Right now, there are 2.7 billion mobile phones in use.
• The number of worldwide mobile phone users is expected to grow to approximately 3.3 billion in 2011. The Asia-Pacific region is expected to account for 47.9% of global subscribers by 2011.
• Globally, nearly 1 in 3 mobile subscribers will use a mobile broadband connection by 2012. This will represent over 1 billion users.

(Sources: Juniper, EITO, MIC, Strategy Analytics.)

2008 will also see a number of initiatives to bring (back) ONLINE OXYGEN to the last vestiges of offline-ness, the pockets of the real world that have managed to keep even regular mobile broadband connections at bay (planes, trains, and automobiles anyone?):

• Even though Boeing discontinued its Connexion inflight internet service last year, don't count on consumers' insatiable demand to be online 24/7 to remain unmet forever. In fact, the problem wasn't passenger demand; the satellite-based service was simply too expensive and too heavy (weight equals cost in aviation). So Lufthansa and American Airlines are among the first airlines to bring back inflight internet somewhere in 2008. Lufthansa is working with T-Mobile to bring back wifi to its planes and will also offer text messaging, e-mail and data access for cell phones, but not phone calls.
  
  American Airlines has signed up with AirCell and will initially test a broadband service on trans-Atlantic flights on its fleet of 767s. Virgin America has also teamed up with AirCell to offer broadband internet services for passengers traveling in the continental US sometime in 2008. The service will allow passengers to go online using either Virgin America's Red inflight entertainment system or their own wifi-enabled devices while in flight. Virgin America will launch the service across its entire fleet of aircraft.
  
  Meanwhile, Australian carrier Qantas will offer wifi and electrical outlets on its new A380 and renovated 747-400s in the second half of 2008.
  
• European high speed train operator Thalys will provide wireless broadband internet access to passengers traveling in Comfort 1 and Comfort 2 between Paris, Brussels, Amsterdam and Cologne by 2008. It will be the first international high speed train to provide this service across European borders. A consortium, consisting of Nokia Siemens Networks, satellite operator 21NET and Belgium broadband cable operator Telenet, will combine satellite, GPRS and UMTS technologies with wireless networks similar to wifi hotspots to provide a continuous internet connection on board trains traveling across the borders at speeds of 300 km/h. The first Thalys trains equipped with wifi will run commercially in the next few weeks.
  
• Autonet Mobile is a wireless internet service designed to maintain seamless connectivity while driving. The service turns a car into a wifi hotspot, allowing multiple people to connect their own wifi-enabled computers to the internet. Autonet runs over both 3G and 2.5G cellular data networks. Users simply plug the in-car router into their cigarette car lighter, connect their wifi device(s) and surf the net. Autonet Mobile claims to be effective on more than 95% of roads in the US. Avis is the first corporate customer of Autonet, rebranding the service as Avis Connect. Avis Connect is currently available at San Francisco, Las Vegas, Newark, New York LaGuardia, Chicago O’Hare and Chicago Midway, Dallas/Ft. Worth, Miami, West Palm Beach and Ft. Lauderdale airports, as well as at a San Francisco Avis office. The cost of the Avis Connect service is USD 10.95 per day. For individual users, the equipment will cost USD 399 plus monthly costs.

Sometimes, the Next Big Thing can be right under your nose. Consider the online riches to be reaped in 2008 from... ecommerce! Sure, it's been around for years and years, but prepare for a forceful 'sequel'. After all, never before have so many consumers been willing to overcome security threats, still shockingly bad (or boring) design, and delivery screwups. In other words, 2008 could be a goldmine for smart e-tailers, who, if they get their act together, could make billions and billions of dollars, euros, pounds, yen, kroner, lira and rand that are impatiently waiting to be spent by web-savvy consumers around the world.
So iIn 2008, spend blood, sweat and tears on improving your ecommerce presence; the pay-off will be immediate, and far more substantial than investing in Web 2.0 me-toos!

We'll let the numbers do (some of) the talking:

• Some very recent US holiday spending numbers: online retail spending hit a record USD733m on 'Cyber Monday', the Monday after Thanksgiving which usually represents the first significant spike in online holiday spending in the US. The spend figure increased by 21% on last year and was an 84% jump from the average daily online spending totals during the preceding four weeks, according to ComScore. More than USD 10.7bn has been spent online during the holiday season, covering the first 26 days of November 2007, a 17% increase on the same period last year.
  All in all, ecommerce in the US is expected to reap sales of USD 259 billion this year, representing an 18% gain over 2006.
• Forrester estimates that in the US, almost USD 400 billion of store sales — or 16% of total retail sales — are directly influenced by the web as consumers research products online and purchase them offline. This will expand at a 17% compounded annual growth rate over the next five years, resulting in more than USD 1 trillion of store sales by 2012.
• In the UK, online shopping sales exceeded GBP 4 billion a month for the first time in July 2007. On a 12-month basis, online sales are up 36%. (Source: Brand Republic.)
• South Korea's ecommerce sales soared more than 26% in 2006, thanks to increased spending on children's goods, fashion and sports-related items. Combined ecommerce transactions reached 13.45 trillion won (USD 14.29 billion). (Source: Yonhap.)

Now, if you want some tried and tested tips and examples of how to make the most of your ecommerce presence in 2008, including collaborative filtering 2.0, upselling and cross-selling, establishing offline outposts for your online brand, real world pick-up services, luxury e-tailing, group buying services and more, you will have to purchase the 2008 Trend Report. But even if you decide to stick just to this Briefing, we hope ECOMMERCE | THE SEQUEL is on your radar now!

OK, one more ONLINE OXYGEN subtrend, if not sub-sub-trend: our two cents on social networking. As discussed in earlier briefings, nichification based on interest, background, affiliation, hobbies, travel destinations and so on is now a fact. In fact, expect experienced social networkers to not only have a Facebook, Xing, Bebo, Linkedin or MySpace profile, but to also spend time on smaller networking sites (from Mesh Tennis to Yideoz to Goodreads to Trupoli to KLM Airlines' Club China to (soon) DanceJam) when things get, well, focused.

So what's next for 2008? One thing to watch is social networks of any kind going local, if not hyperlocal. Neighborhoods. Streets. Buildings. Floors. Like many subtrends, this one isn't spanking new, in fact, we dubbed this opportunity NETHOODS ("neighborhoods, streets and even apartment buildings will get their own internet and intranet sites: not just to promote the many qualities they have to offer their (prospective) inhabitants, but also to provide communal interaction and localized services") in 2003, but sometimes timing is everything, and now that networking on a grander scale is in place, connecting locals if not neighbors is just a business opportunity waiting to happen. To get you going, here's what our sister publication Springwise New Business Ideas recently wrote about LifeAt:

• Launched in March 2007, LifeAt offers property managers a turnkey solution for launching a 'nethood' for their building. So far, over 335 buildings have joined. The property websites are private and password protected, for use by residents only. Besides offering a platform where residents can meet and communicate, sites also allow users to post classified ads and rate and review local businesses. In addition, property managers post news about vacancies and maintenance work. By connecting people who tend to share not only a building but also similar socioeconomic backgrounds, and offering them a source of hyperlocal information, LifeAt is creating valuable links between cyberspace and 'meatspace'. The concept is likely to find a wider audience now that people of all ages are getting used to sharing information online. Free for residents, LifeAt charges buildings a one-off fee of around USD 6,000 to create and launch a site. One to set up in other countries? And how about a version focusing specifically on office buildings? Also check out Neighborology, Neighbours.ie, and townconnect.com.

Yours to run with in 2008, and yes, if you do this well (just think of the local advertising opportunities), Google Local or Yellow Pages will buy you. Don't forget, all politics and business is local ;-)