8. CROWD MINING

No! Not another crowd-esque trend! Don't worry; CROWD MINING is simply a moniker for how we see crowd-based business concepts evolving in 2008. But first let's take a look at some of the 'crowd pleasers' we enjoyed tracking this year:

Remember SellaBand, which lets fans sponsor unknown bands and artists by buying the band's shares or parts? (Once a band has raised USD 50,000 by selling 5,000 parts, SellaBand sets up a professional recording session. The recorded songs are sold to new fans, and both the artists and owners of their parts (Believers) receive a share of the income generated through music sales and advertising revenues.) They're certainly having fun: a few weeks ago, Believers who own parts in Cubworld, Nemesea, Second Person and Maitreya received their first payout, which was transferred to their Believer Balance. While the first payout wasn't massive (in SellaBand's words: "Enough to buy a beer at the pub, or maybe even a round or two"), it's a sign that SellaBand's crowdfunding and crowdrewarding model is working as planned. Ad revenues are expected to grow over the next few months, as SellaBand is working on deals with media agencies for countries outside their main three markets—the Netherlands, United States and United Kingdom. One to watch in 2008. MyFootballClub, which launched in May 2007, recently announced that they've agreed to buy a controlling stake in Ebbsfleet United FC, with the option to buy the the remaining share in the future. To refresh your memory: in less than three months, MyFootballClub signed up 50,000 people willing to pay a GBP 35 membership fee to buy and manage a soccer team with a crowd of other dedicated fans. MyFootballClub members will vote on player selection, transfers and all other major decisions. When it got down to picking a team to buy, MyFootballClub was approached by nine football club owners and also sought contact with several others. Some of the crowd's favorite clubs didn't make the cut, because they had too much debt or were too regional. One of the reasons for picking Ebbsfleet United is that it stands a good chance to reach the national Football League. We'll definitely keep score of this one in 2008. P2P banking pioneers Zopa and Prosper are still doing well, in fact, P2P banking is an excellent example of how fast a new concept can spread, and also how much opportunity remains in turning consumers into mini-banks. Quick recap: peer-to-peer lending marketplaces allow people to lend money directly to others, cutting out banks and other middlemen. Which means better interest rates for borrowers and higher returns for lenders. Described as eBay for loans, the P2P money exchanges work as follows: borrowers list loan details and a personal profile, and lenders bid on the loan. Lowest interest rates win. Lenders bid in increments and minimize their risk by bidding on numerous loans. A study by Online Banking Report predicts that by 2011 person-to-person lending in the US could surpass 100,000 loans a year, worth more than USD 1 billion. Unlike eBay, which can connect buyers and sellers from around the world, peer-to-peer lending is generally bound by local financial regulations. Which means there's ample room for national or regional versions. Besides Zopa and Prosper, here’s what was out there last time we looked, from the promising to the obscure, and from the established to ‘coming soon’:

• Smava elolly.de PPdai Circle Lending Lendary Boober CommunityLend

  Peermint Lending Club Wiseclerk.com Fairrates Nexx GlobeFunder

  So... lots of innovation going on, yet there’s plenty of room for a second player in all of these markets; and dozens of countries don’t yet have a P2P banking brand. And what about the many other financial concepts waiting to be explored, from crowd investments (check out You Be The VC) to insurance plays? Will more consumers become comfortable with these concepts? Will big banks step in? This one too is all yours in 2008 ;-)

Now, let's go back to CROWD MINING: when co-creating, co-funding, co-buying, co-designing, co-managing *anything* with 'crowds', the emphasis in 2008 will move from just getting the masses in, to mining those crowds for the rough and polished diamonds. How to do that? Shower them with love, respect and heaps of money, of course. Two examples, from Netflix and Google, setting the standards for CROWD MINING in 2008:

Still going strong: Netflix, the DVD rental site, is offering a Grand Prize of USD 1 million to the individual who can substantially improve the accuracy of predictions about how much someone is going to love a movie based on their movie preferences. From their site (great copy if you ever want to set up something similar for your own brand):

• “Netflix is all about connecting people to the movies they love. To help customers find those movies, we’ve developed our world-class movie recommendation system: Cinematch. Now there are a lot of interesting alternative approaches to how Cinematch works that we haven’t tried. We’re curious whether any of these can beat Cinematch by making better predictions.

  So, we thought we’d make a contest out of finding the answer. It’s 'easy', really. We provide you with a lot of anonymous rating data, and a prediction accuracy bar that is 10% better than what Cinematch can do on the same training data set. If you develop a system that we judge most beats that bar on the qualifying test set we provide, you get serious money and the bragging rights. But (and you knew there would be a catch, right?) only if you share your method with us and describe to the world how you did it and why it works. To keep things interesting, in addition to the Grand Prize, we’re also offering a USD 50,000 Progress Prize each year the contest runs. It goes to the team whose system we judge shows the most improvement over the previous year’s best accuracy bar on the same qualifying test set. No improvement, no prize."

  To keep things transparent, progress can be monitored on an online leaderboard. So far, more than 27,000 contestants from 161 countries have submitted their guesses, with the winner for 2007 being Team KorBell for their October 2007 submission, achieving an 8.43% improvement over Cinematch, which netted them the USD 50,000 Progress Prize. Now, they got close, but not close enough, which means the USD 1 million grand prize is still up for grabs ;-)

• The Open Handset Alliance's most prominent member, Google, is developing Android: the first complete, open, and free mobile platform. To support the quest for apps that surprise and delight mobile users, to be created by developers around the world, Google has launched the Android Developer Challenge, which will provide USD 10 million in awards for innovative applications. The first part of the challenge (submissions are accepted from January 2 through March 3, 2008), will reward 50 entries with USD 25,000 to fund further development. Those selected will then be eligible for even greater recognition via ten USD 275,000 awards and ten USD 100,000 awards.

So... What's your brand's biggest challenge (or opportunity), and what kind of dough would you be willing to dole out to have brilliant crowds solve it for you in 2008?

Sure, there's much, much more in 2008 that's worthy of your attention. But for now, take any of the eight trends above, sit down with your colleagues and/or clients, and figure out how, in 2008, to come up with at least one new premium product, one 'snack' version of an existing product, two or three major tweaks to your ecommerce presence, one eco-iconic innovation, two or three marketing campaigns that are about aiding consumers, not stalking them, introducing one MIY concept, and asking the rest of the world for help with at least one of your company's major opportunities or challenges.

For some help, don't forget our 'How to Apply Trends' checklist:

1. Vision—Do these trends have the potential to influence or shape your company's vision?
2. New business concepts—Can these trends point you to new business concepts, or entirely new ventures?
3. New products, services, experiences—Can these trends inspire you to add 'something' new for a certain customer segment?
4. Marketing, advertising, PR—Will these trends help you speak the language of those consumers that are already 'living' a trend?

7. MIY | MAKE IT YOURSELF

Let's have a more in-depth look at the 'participation sphere'. For years, we've been going on about GENERATION C, with the C mainly representing 'content'. In other words, digital creation. Pictures. Movies. Blogs. Music.

It's a mainstream trend now, one that keeps giving, with millions of consumers uploading their creative endeavors online, and tens of millions of others enjoying the fruits of their creativity. User-generated content, at least in the online world, has grown from a teenage hobby to an almost equal contender to established entities in news, media, entertainment and craft.

And yes, as predicted, GENERATION C is increasingly being rewarded for its output. In fact, with some members of GENERATION C attracting mass audiences, there's real money to be made. In its first year, video sharing site Revver, which matches every video uploaded with advertisements and splits the ad revenue 50/50 with the video's creator and then shares 20% off the top with the video's distributor, has paid USD 1 million to video creators and sharers.

So what's next for GENERATION C? With (in particular younger) consumers having come to expect to be able to create anything they want as long as it is digital, and to customize and personalize many physical goods, the next frontier will be digitally designing products from scratch, then having them turned into real physical goods as well. In fact, expect MIY | MAKE IT YOURSELF (and then SIY | SELL IT YOURSELF) ventures to become increasingly sophisticated in the next 12 months:

• New Zealand-based Ponoko (which works like a CafePress for 3D objects) is offering consumers a new way to turn their creative ideas into real-world objects. After uploading their own design to the website (in EPS file format), or choosing a free design, users can choose from a variety of materials. Ponoko then runs the design through a laser cutter. Besides offering access to professional tools to manufacture products, Ponoko also helps users bring their products to market. Once they’re ready to sell, members can add photos of their product to their profile page, together with a description and pricing information. Products can either be delivered to the designer for assembly before being shipped to customers, or self-assembly products can be sent directly to the end-customer. Ponoko currently only offers two-dimensional sheet cutting, which limits designs to flat objects or three-dimensional objects that can be assembled from flat pieces, but plans for 3D printing are in the works.
  
  As well as being a manufacturing platform, Ponoko also serves as a community where fledgling one-off fabricators and designers can exchange ideas and help solve each other’s problems. The larger goal, according to Ponoko, is to be a catalyst that helps bring personal manufacturing of individualized products to the masses.
  
• Swedish design group FRONT has launched Sketch Furniture, which is a method to materialize freehand sketches. Pen strokes made in the air are recorded with Motion Capture, and the resulting 3-D patterns are output digitally to a laser sintering machine. Over several days, the machine produces the object by shaping and hardening 0.1-mm layers of liquid plastic. Sketch Furniture is on view and on sale (about USD 10,500 per piece) at the Barry Friedman Gallery in New York.
  
• Fab Lab Bcn (Barcelona) is part of the worldwide network of Fab Labs, an initiative of MIT Center for Bits and Atoms, and provides a laser-cutter, water jet, 3D printer, mini-mill and other machines for participants to use. Fab Lab Bcn's 4x8 Workshops focus on creating objects from 4x8 feet sheets of plywood using digital tools. One of Fab Lab's initiators is Neil Gershenfeld, professor at MIT and author of FAB: The Coming Revolution on Your Desktop. Other Fab Labs have been opened in rural India, northern Norway, Ghana, Boston and Costa Rica.

Even sweeter? Designing something and then have it made at home (which reminds us of INSPERIENCES):

• The Desktop Factory 3D printer, with a list price of USD 4,995, uses an inexpensive halogen light source and drum printing technology to build robust parts from composite plastic powder, layer by layer. Desktop Factory envisages that within three years, Desktop Factory's 3D printers will be affordable for home use.

Now, we're not saying every consumer is going to design and manufacture his or her own furniture or appliances. Rather, MIY is yet another piece of the participation puzzle: enabling those consumers who feel like it to call the shots, bypassing traditional players. In future briefings we’ll address the implications of what this choice – being able to consume ready-made or create their own versions of anything and everything – will mean for the behavior and expectations of younger generations.

Online Marketing Trends

6. BRAND BUTLERS

Consider this for 2008: if consumers value the authentic, the practical, the exclusive, and they're also forever looking to make life more convenient, even save some time, then why persist in bombarding them with your mega-million dollar/euro/pound, one-way advertising campaigns? Instead of stalking potential and existing customers (which is not very 2008), why not assist them in smart, relevant ways, making the most of your products and whatever it is your brand stands for? Remember, giving is the new taking ;-)

Think baby food or diaper brands opening a lounge area, including diaper-changing facilities and microwaves, for parents and their offspring at a major airport or in malls. Or a bank installing secure, high-tech lockers next to the beach, so beachgoers can safely store their belongings when going for a swim or walk.

Now, we're not branding gurus, and we're not suggesting that BRAND BUTLERS is the new (or rehashed) 'lovemark', but if the following examples don't inspire you to do something truly useful and new with (a small part of) your advertising budget in 2008, then we don't know what will:

• Continuing the tradition of using shipping containers to house all things pop-up, a spotting from the Netherlands caught our eye. At the Lowlands music festival, jeans brand Wrangler offered festival-goers a much-needed service: laundry. At 18 meters wide and 9 meters high, the Wrangler Laundromat was hard to miss. People dropped off their mud-encrusted laundry and were sent a text message the moment it was ready. No change of clothes? Wrangler came up with a generous solution to that problem, too: they handed out black overalls to anyone who used the laundromat. Like most other pop-up ventures, Wrangler Laundromat is an exercise in experiential marketing, aimed at surprising and delighting consumers in a way that magazine ads or TV spots usually can't.
• Wrangler isn't the only brand to have tackled dirty laundry at pop festivals. In Slovenia, home appliance manufacturer Zanussi-Electrolux has been offering free laundry services at Rock Otočec for several years and has cleaned thousands of muddy t-shirts and jeans. After picking up their spotless garments, visitors are given a "Dear Mom, I'm clean" postcard to send home.

• Acknowledging that traveling with infants can be a strain on both parents and children, Amsterdam's Schiphol Airport opened the Schiphol Babycare Lounge by Nutricia last summer (2007). Located in the airport's main departure terminal, the lounge is (as the name indicates) a co-branding effort by Schiphol and Nutricia, a Dutch baby food brand. Designed by MV Architects, the lounge is serenely stylish and geared to ensuring a baby's well-being while en route. The 90 m² area features seven circular 'cabins', each of which can be closed off with sheer curtains to create a personal zone. The booths have comfortable circular seating curving around a crib. Lights in the lounge are dimmed for sleeping babies, with individual reading lights for parents. For infants that need a bit of distraction, each booth has a gadget that projects colored lights onto the ceiling, just above the crib. Other facilities include a changing area, baby baths and a microwave for heating food. Although Nutricia hasn't stocked a pantry with samples of their own baby food, the brand does offer tips on baby nutrition and traveling with children. The space is open daily from 6 am to 10 pm, accessible free of charge to parents and children aged 0–3.
  
• Also check out Turkish diaper brand Evy Baby, which is reaching out to parents by placing changing rooms in Turkish shopping malls. The diaper manufacturer has already installed 22 changing rooms in Istanbul, Ankara, Izmir, Antalya, Adana and Mersin. Each clean and cheerful room has a changing table and comfortable chairs for nursing. And, of course, samples of Evy Baby's products.

• More on sanitary stops meeting BRAND BUTLERS: Charmin restrooms. Due to its success last year (close to 430,000 people made use of the service), Procter and Gamble's bathroom tissue brand has just reopened its temporary 20-stall restroom in the heart of Times Square at 1540 Broadway, between 45th and 46th Streets. Open until 31 December 2007, the facilities offer clean, deluxe bathrooms, baby changing stations, stroller parking, seating areas and of course lots of luxury toilet and bath tissue (including Charmin's new product lineup, which includes a choice between Ultra Soft and Ultra Strong versions). Specially designed, water-conserving toilets and faucets are provided by Kohler, while cleanliness is guaranteed by the presence of plenty of bathroom attendants.
  
• Hotel chain Le Méridien is marketing itself as a destination for art enthusiasts. As part of its “Unlock Art” program, it has cut deals with local contemporary cultural institutions to allow hotel guests free entry by presenting their artist-designed room key cards and it has hired modern art curator Jérôme Sans to organize special exhibits. Partner arts institutions include the Yerba Buena Center for the Arts in San Francisco, the Museum of Contemporary Arts (MOCA) in Shanghai, the Vienna Succession, Nouveau Musée National de Monaco, Galleriiizu Contemporary Arts Centre in Kuala Lumpur, and About Studio/About Café in Bangkok. Ultimately, the goal is for every Le Méridien hotel worldwide to have partnerships with leading cultural institutions.
• Austrian Airlines offers passengers free entry to cultural institutions in Vienna with their boarding cards. Passengers traveling with the airline can keep the tear-off stub from their used boarding cards (along with a photo ID) for free entry to five museums in Vienna.

Again, there is no brand that cannot apply the BRAND BUTLERS trend in 2008. Being relevant (gasp), assisting and facilitating potential and existing customers when they truly appreciate it (as opposed to inundating them with advertising) will go down well. Promise. More examples in our 2008 Trend Report.

PSFK : Ideas, Trends & Inspiration

5. ECO-ICONIC

The reason so many people fell for our ECO-FATIGUE spoof last month (rest assured, we'll never spoof anyone again ;-) is that an eco-backlash is actually quite plausible. After all, while millions of consumers are firmly rooted in the aforementioned ECO-SPHERE, millions of others are not. But let's focus on those who are now getting their status fix from consuming in a more sustainable manner.

Over the past few years, the ECO trend has moved from ECO-UGLY (ugly, over-priced, low performance alternatives to shiny 'traditional sphere' products and services) to ECO-CHIC (eco-friendly stuff that actually looks as nice and cool as the less responsible version) to ECO-ICONIC in 2008: "Eco-friendly goods and services sporting bold, iconic design and markers, that help their eco-conscious owners to visibly tout their eco-credentials to peers."

So what does ECO-ICONIC look like? How about the new Honda FCX Clarity, or the Mitsubishi I, or the Bahrain World Trade Center:

• Honda's FCX Clarity is a fuel cell vehicle that runs on electricity powered by hydrogen, and emits only water vapor and heat. It will be certified by the California Air Resources Board as a Zero-Emission Vehicle (ZEV) and by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) as a Tier-2 Bin 1, the lowest possible federal EPA emission rating. It will also receive an EPA Inherently Low Emission Vehicle rating due to its entirely sealed fuel system. It will qualify for accessing High Occupancy Vehicle lanes in California with just one person on board. As the fuel cell technology was developed by Honda exclusively for the FCX Clarity, and was not retrofitted to an existing model, Honda's engineers "cleared away all preconceived notions of automobile design, challenging themselves to discover the new possibilities that can only be realized with the fuel cell vehicle." Our verdict: the FCX will be more recognizable than the Prius, making an even more telling statement about the owner's 'STATUS SPHERE'.

• Another zero-emission car with iconic potential is the Mitsubishi i, first exhibited at the 40th Tokyo Motor Show, this September. From the brochure: "The 'fastback' exterior design expresses the quickness of the car with an appearance that is pleasing and lively. Geometry, metallic materials and body epitomize the futuristic electric vehicle. The light green exterior marks another association with nature. The pearlescent paint, which shines when hit with direct light, brings feelings of advanced, futuristic technology and environmental peace of mind."

• The Bahrain World Trade Center is the first commercial building in the world to incorporate large-scale wind turbines within its design to harness wind power. It has three massive wind turbines that measure 29 meters in diameter that are supported on bridges between the BWTC’s two 240 meter high towers. The tower structures themselves help funnel the existing on-shore Gulf breeze that is used to generate greater power efficiency. Very….iconic!

When designing your 2008 or 2009 eco-product line, don't mirror what's already out there in the non-eco world, but be bold, original, and yes, iconic. Whether it's cars, buildings or detergent bottles. Find your own Jonathan Ive (see trend #8, CROWD MINING) and get going.

There's also going to be some serious ECO-EMBEDDED activity taking place in 2008, with governments taking the lead. After all, corporations’ and consumers’ good intentions don’t always cut it. So expect 2008 to see much more of the 'fourth R', aka regulation (remember: reduce, reuse, recycle..) For more on this, see our 2008 Trend Report.

Tomorrow's Trends

4. ONLINE OXYGEN (part xiv)

Ah, the Online Revolution, the mega-trend that keeps on giving, one that single-handedly dominates the 'connecting sphere'. While Web 2.0 has already single-handledly created young brands that are now bigger and more valuable (at least on paper) than many an old economy stalwart, Web 3.0 and 4.0 and 5.0 guarantee enough motion for this innovation-orgasm to continue uninterrupted for years to come. Five years ago, we introduced ONLINE OXYGEN as the engine behind all this excitement: control-craving consumers needing online access as much as they need oxygen.

Fast forward to 2008, when we would need a thousand pages/screens to highlight every noteworthy online sub-trend and Big Idea to watch; the Joosts and Androids and Spores and ordering burgers in Seoul by RFID and the hundreds of yet-unknown start-ups that are about to make an appearance on TechCrunch. So instead, we'll look at a few developments that will spread and encourage ONLINE OXYGEN even further in the next few years to come.

If there's one device that's going to introduce another few hundred million people to the online world, it's the phone. And yes, initiatives like Google's Android and 'their bidding on the 700MHz band' and WiMax and so on are definitely going to speed things up. We know this is not a new insight, and nor will it happen overnight in 2008, but if you're inclined to look beyond 2008, consider this:

• Right now, there are 2.7 billion mobile phones in use.
• The number of worldwide mobile phone users is expected to grow to approximately 3.3 billion in 2011. The Asia-Pacific region is expected to account for 47.9% of global subscribers by 2011.
• Globally, nearly 1 in 3 mobile subscribers will use a mobile broadband connection by 2012. This will represent over 1 billion users.

(Sources: Juniper, EITO, MIC, Strategy Analytics.)

2008 will also see a number of initiatives to bring (back) ONLINE OXYGEN to the last vestiges of offline-ness, the pockets of the real world that have managed to keep even regular mobile broadband connections at bay (planes, trains, and automobiles anyone?):

• Even though Boeing discontinued its Connexion inflight internet service last year, don't count on consumers' insatiable demand to be online 24/7 to remain unmet forever. In fact, the problem wasn't passenger demand; the satellite-based service was simply too expensive and too heavy (weight equals cost in aviation). So Lufthansa and American Airlines are among the first airlines to bring back inflight internet somewhere in 2008. Lufthansa is working with T-Mobile to bring back wifi to its planes and will also offer text messaging, e-mail and data access for cell phones, but not phone calls.
  
  American Airlines has signed up with AirCell and will initially test a broadband service on trans-Atlantic flights on its fleet of 767s. Virgin America has also teamed up with AirCell to offer broadband internet services for passengers traveling in the continental US sometime in 2008. The service will allow passengers to go online using either Virgin America's Red inflight entertainment system or their own wifi-enabled devices while in flight. Virgin America will launch the service across its entire fleet of aircraft.
  
  Meanwhile, Australian carrier Qantas will offer wifi and electrical outlets on its new A380 and renovated 747-400s in the second half of 2008.
  
• European high speed train operator Thalys will provide wireless broadband internet access to passengers traveling in Comfort 1 and Comfort 2 between Paris, Brussels, Amsterdam and Cologne by 2008. It will be the first international high speed train to provide this service across European borders. A consortium, consisting of Nokia Siemens Networks, satellite operator 21NET and Belgium broadband cable operator Telenet, will combine satellite, GPRS and UMTS technologies with wireless networks similar to wifi hotspots to provide a continuous internet connection on board trains traveling across the borders at speeds of 300 km/h. The first Thalys trains equipped with wifi will run commercially in the next few weeks.
  
• Autonet Mobile is a wireless internet service designed to maintain seamless connectivity while driving. The service turns a car into a wifi hotspot, allowing multiple people to connect their own wifi-enabled computers to the internet. Autonet runs over both 3G and 2.5G cellular data networks. Users simply plug the in-car router into their cigarette car lighter, connect their wifi device(s) and surf the net. Autonet Mobile claims to be effective on more than 95% of roads in the US. Avis is the first corporate customer of Autonet, rebranding the service as Avis Connect. Avis Connect is currently available at San Francisco, Las Vegas, Newark, New York LaGuardia, Chicago O’Hare and Chicago Midway, Dallas/Ft. Worth, Miami, West Palm Beach and Ft. Lauderdale airports, as well as at a San Francisco Avis office. The cost of the Avis Connect service is USD 10.95 per day. For individual users, the equipment will cost USD 399 plus monthly costs.

Sometimes, the Next Big Thing can be right under your nose. Consider the online riches to be reaped in 2008 from... ecommerce! Sure, it's been around for years and years, but prepare for a forceful 'sequel'. After all, never before have so many consumers been willing to overcome security threats, still shockingly bad (or boring) design, and delivery screwups. In other words, 2008 could be a goldmine for smart e-tailers, who, if they get their act together, could make billions and billions of dollars, euros, pounds, yen, kroner, lira and rand that are impatiently waiting to be spent by web-savvy consumers around the world.
So iIn 2008, spend blood, sweat and tears on improving your ecommerce presence; the pay-off will be immediate, and far more substantial than investing in Web 2.0 me-toos!

We'll let the numbers do (some of) the talking:

• Some very recent US holiday spending numbers: online retail spending hit a record USD733m on 'Cyber Monday', the Monday after Thanksgiving which usually represents the first significant spike in online holiday spending in the US. The spend figure increased by 21% on last year and was an 84% jump from the average daily online spending totals during the preceding four weeks, according to ComScore. More than USD 10.7bn has been spent online during the holiday season, covering the first 26 days of November 2007, a 17% increase on the same period last year.
  All in all, ecommerce in the US is expected to reap sales of USD 259 billion this year, representing an 18% gain over 2006.
• Forrester estimates that in the US, almost USD 400 billion of store sales — or 16% of total retail sales — are directly influenced by the web as consumers research products online and purchase them offline. This will expand at a 17% compounded annual growth rate over the next five years, resulting in more than USD 1 trillion of store sales by 2012.
• In the UK, online shopping sales exceeded GBP 4 billion a month for the first time in July 2007. On a 12-month basis, online sales are up 36%. (Source: Brand Republic.)
• South Korea's ecommerce sales soared more than 26% in 2006, thanks to increased spending on children's goods, fashion and sports-related items. Combined ecommerce transactions reached 13.45 trillion won (USD 14.29 billion). (Source: Yonhap.)

Now, if you want some tried and tested tips and examples of how to make the most of your ecommerce presence in 2008, including collaborative filtering 2.0, upselling and cross-selling, establishing offline outposts for your online brand, real world pick-up services, luxury e-tailing, group buying services and more, you will have to purchase the 2008 Trend Report. But even if you decide to stick just to this Briefing, we hope ECOMMERCE | THE SEQUEL is on your radar now!

OK, one more ONLINE OXYGEN subtrend, if not sub-sub-trend: our two cents on social networking. As discussed in earlier briefings, nichification based on interest, background, affiliation, hobbies, travel destinations and so on is now a fact. In fact, expect experienced social networkers to not only have a Facebook, Xing, Bebo, Linkedin or MySpace profile, but to also spend time on smaller networking sites (from Mesh Tennis to Yideoz to Goodreads to Trupoli to KLM Airlines' Club China to (soon) DanceJam) when things get, well, focused.

So what's next for 2008? One thing to watch is social networks of any kind going local, if not hyperlocal. Neighborhoods. Streets. Buildings. Floors. Like many subtrends, this one isn't spanking new, in fact, we dubbed this opportunity NETHOODS ("neighborhoods, streets and even apartment buildings will get their own internet and intranet sites: not just to promote the many qualities they have to offer their (prospective) inhabitants, but also to provide communal interaction and localized services") in 2003, but sometimes timing is everything, and now that networking on a grander scale is in place, connecting locals if not neighbors is just a business opportunity waiting to happen. To get you going, here's what our sister publication Springwise New Business Ideas recently wrote about LifeAt:

• Launched in March 2007, LifeAt offers property managers a turnkey solution for launching a 'nethood' for their building. So far, over 335 buildings have joined. The property websites are private and password protected, for use by residents only. Besides offering a platform where residents can meet and communicate, sites also allow users to post classified ads and rate and review local businesses. In addition, property managers post news about vacancies and maintenance work. By connecting people who tend to share not only a building but also similar socioeconomic backgrounds, and offering them a source of hyperlocal information, LifeAt is creating valuable links between cyberspace and 'meatspace'. The concept is likely to find a wider audience now that people of all ages are getting used to sharing information online. Free for residents, LifeAt charges buildings a one-off fee of around USD 6,000 to create and launch a site. One to set up in other countries? And how about a version focusing specifically on office buildings? Also check out Neighborology, Neighbours.ie, and townconnect.com.

Yours to run with in 2008, and yes, if you do this well (just think of the local advertising opportunities), Google Local or Yellow Pages will buy you. Don't forget, all politics and business is local ;-)

TREND HUNTER

3. SNACK CULTURE

SNACK CULTURE represents the 'transient sphere' on steroids, catering to consumers’ insatiable craving for instant gratification. SNACK CULTURE thus embodies the phenomenon of products, services and experiences becoming more temporary and transient; products that are being deconstructed in easier to digest, easier to afford bits, making it possible to collect even more experiences, as often as possible, in an even shorter timeframe. The signs are everywhere, from ubiquitous commerce to fragmented (shattered?) media to fast fashion to temporary ownership to Netflix-style all-you-can-eat models. SNACK CULTURE, like PREMIUMIZATION, is not a 'new new ' trend, but definitely one that will continue to thrive next year.

To get you going, here’s a list of fairly random SNACK CULTURE spottings that is sure to grow longer in 2008:

• Food & Beverage | Some numbers on actual food snacks from the New York Times:
  • In just three years, sales of 100-calorie packs of crackers, chips, cookies and candy have passed the USD 200-million-a-year mark, and sales grew nearly 30 percent last year. According to analysts, the market for these pint-size packages could easily double because of their simple appeal: they help consumers eat less without having to count calories themselves. The growing popularity of these snack packs may also be another sign that some consumers have had their fill of supersized food.
  • A report from the Hartman Group found that 29 percent of Americans believed that 100-calorie packages were worth the extra cost. For manufacturers, snack packs are about 20 percent more profitable than larger packages.
  • Some snack makers think even 100 calories might be too much for some diet-conscious consumers. Hershey, for example, now sells 60-calorie chocolate bars. And Jell-O sells 60-calorie pudding packs.
    
• Which then may explain the success of Chicago-based burger joint Minnies, which proves that bigger isn't always better. Featuring a wide selection of Lilliputian gourmet burgers and sandwiches—including traditional favorites such as grilled cheese and Reubens, alongside the more inventive Mykonos (roast chicken, tzatziki sauce and kalamata tapenade) and Thanksgiving Delight (roast turkey, cranberries and wild rice gravy)—Minnies applies nouvelle cuisine portions to casual dining.

• Old-school SNACK CULTURE meets PREMIUMIZATION: in Europe, McDonald’s is replacing bolted-down, yellow-and-white plastic furniture with lime green designer chairs and dark leather upholstery. It is the restaurant chain’s biggest overhaul in more than 20 years and, with its franchisees, it plans to spend more than EUR 600 million euros (USD 890 million), remodeling 1,280 European restaurants by the end of this year.

• Laundry care | Procter & Gamble’s Swash offers students dryer sheets, dewrinkling spray, stain-removing pens, odor-removing sprays and lint rollers that can help give their clothes the look and smell of having been washed without the trouble or expense of actual washing.

• Cosmetics | Take a high-margin product like cosmetics, and cut prices by at least half. Now add online accessibility with customization, community and values. Throw in a pinch of demystifying expert advice, and you've got e.l.f., short for "eyes, lips, face." Launched by New York-based JA Cosmetics roughly three years ago, e.l.f. appears to be turning the cosmetics industry on its ear. All cosmetics cost just USD 1, and customers can create personalized profiles that generate product recommendations and customized looks. e.l.f. currently ships only to US and Canadian addresses, but versions of the site have recently launched for both the UK and Australia. The company 's products are also available in US stores, including Target and a variety of drugstores and convenience chains.

• Automotive | Just like bicycles, a pretty staid sector suddenly brimming with innovation, the small car sector seems ready for a truly global boom. Eco-concerns, design savvy and an (urban) willingness to regard cars as a utility instead of the ultimate status symbol will lead to a neverending stream of small-car innovations. Keep an eye on the company who kick-started most of this: Smart. Since its introduction in October 1998, nearly 800,000 people in 36 countries have purchased a ‘Smart Fortwo’. The new Smart Fortwo was released in Europe in April 2007 and will become available in the US, for the first time, in Q1 of 2008. The vehicles will be built at a plant in France and will be equipped for the US market. The Smart Fortwo will come in three trim levels—a Pure baseline model that starts under USD 12,000, a Passion Coupe that starts under USD 14,000 and a convertible that starts under USD 17,000. Consumers can place a USD 99 refundable reservation for a production model on the smartusa.com. So far, more than 30,000 reservations have been received.

• Fast Fashion | Snacks, cars, magazines…. And fashion, of course! If you need to explain SNACK CULTURE to colleagues who may not totally get it (yet), discussing the success of the Zaras and H&Ms of this world will probably do the trick. Whether it’s fast fashion’s fast moving product cycles, low prices, or SNACK-style ‘wear-only-a-few-times'. In fact, shopping for clothes increasingly resembles shopping for groceries.
  
  The numbers are impressive: H&M’s turnover in 2006 was SEK 68,400,000,000 (EUR 6.8 billion). Currently, H&M has 1,400+ stores in 28 countries. Most of its future expansion will take place in the USA, Spain, Italy, Germany, the UK and Canada. In 2007, H&M opened first-time stores in Hong Kong and Shanghai, with a Tokyo store planned for fall 2008. Zara is part of Spanish Inditex, which also includes fashion chain Bershka. Zara’s turnover (EUR 5.35 billion in 2006) accounts for two-thirds of Inditex’s turnover (EUR 8.2 billion in 2006). For the next years, the focus of Inditex’s expansion will be on Europe (outside home market Spain) and on Japan and China. Zara had 990 stores in 62 countries at the end of last year, and expects to have added another 130-140 before the end of this year.

• Media | Described as "Rocketboom for Wall Street" and "Squawk Box meets Saturday Night Live", Wallstrip offers stock advice in a format that's second nature to viewers who watch YouTube instead of CNBC. Wallstrip's daily videos are taped in New York, hosted by actress Lindsay Campbell, and feature one public company in every 3-minute online show. Wallstrip was founded in October 2006, aiming to be both sassy and serious while teaching a new generation of investors to pick their own stocks. The show was created by Howard Lindzon, who runs an investment firm and hedge fund in Arizona and a venture capital fund in Toronto. Following Lindzon's personal investment philosophy, the focus is on stocks at all-time highs, like Apple, Google and Toyota, analyzing why they're strong and whether they'll continue to increase in value. 'Man on the street' interviews add to Wallstrip's informal vibe. The show has been voted one of the top podcasts on iTunes, and is also distributed via social video sites like Revver and YouTube. With enough VC backing to wait and see how its own value will develop, Wallstrip is in no hurry to chase advertising revenues, focusing instead on building a dedicated following of valuable eyeballs.
  
  Wallstrip perfectly fits what Wired Magazine touted as 'snack-o-tainment' earlier this year (yes, that inspired us to come up with SNACK CULTURE). People are becoming accustomed to consuming large amounts of 'bite-size' content rather than the longer-form stuff of traditional media. Online video clips, the iPod Nano, pay-per-view TV shows on iTunes, short games played on handheld devices, the list goes on. From Wired's article:
  
  “Music, television, games, movies, fashion: We now devour our pop culture the same way we enjoy candy and chips—in conveniently packaged bite-size nuggets made to be munched easily with increased frequency and maximum speed. Today, media snacking is a way of life. In the morning, we check news and tap out emails on our laptops. At work, we graze all day on videos and blogs. Back home, the giant HDTV is for 10-course feasting - say, an entire season of 24. In between are the morsels that fill those whenever minutes, as your mobile phone carrier calls them: a 30-second game on your Nintendo DS, a 60-second webisode on your cell, a three-minute podcast on your MP3 player. Like Homer Simpson at the all-you-can-eat seafood buffet, we are capable of devouring whatever is in front of us—down to the plastic crustaceans—and still go fishing for Colbert clips at 3 am.

• OK, so one more: 20 Minutes, which distributes more than 2,3 million copies every weekday in Spain, France and Switzerland. Forget free newspapers that want 1 hour of your time; 20 minutes is all consumers need to get their daily fix.

• Surprise | Infusing SNACK CULTURE with a dose of surprise, Singapore beverage company Out of the Box caters to consumers who respond to "What would you like to drink?" with a non-committal "anything" or "whatever". The company has launched two complementary brands: Anything and Whatever. Anything is fizzy and comes in six flavors (Cola with Lemon, Apple, Fizz Up, Cloudy Lemon and Root Beer), while Whatever is non-carbonated (Ice Lemon Tea, Peach Tea, Jasmine Green Tea, White Grape Tea, Apple Tea, Chrysanthemum Tea). The surprise part? Consumers don 't know which flavor they're getting until they take a sip. Cans are simply labeled Anything and Whatever, and the list of ingredients is limited to generic wording. Judging from the buzz on Singapore forums, teens immediately got the concept and are loving it. Surprise fits SNACK CULTURE well, as it satisfies the desire for the thrill, for discovery. Worth bringing a surprise to market in 2008, even if it's just a one-off, and even if only for creating a buzz.

• People | SNACK CULTURE applies to more than consumption of goods and services. Consider Adult FriendFinder, the ‘casual encounters’ site now claiming more than 19 million active members. (Real world) sex too has now become something that can be instantly gratified, with the help from millions of other ‘willing and able’ participants. The ‘rate before you date’ features add a level of TRANSPARENCY TYRANNY, too.

Note: not everything will come in bite-size format. If only for the mass-scale infrastructure that is needed to jet off countless ‘sun snack’ travelers, or to ship those millions of containers loaded with SNACK CULTURE goods and ingredients. So in addition to the ever-smaller, we’re seeing the ever-bigger. In fact, 'biggest of the biggest' is going to grab quite a few headlines in 2008. Check out:

• The Emma Mærsk was named in August 2007 at Odense Steel Shipyard, Denmark, and at 397 meters long, 56 meters wide and at 11,000 TEU*, she and her sister vessels** are the largest container vessels in the world. EMMA MÆRSK, and three of her sister vessels, are visiting the following ports: Algeciras, Bremerhaven, Hong Kong, Ningbo, Rotterdam, Suez Canal, Tanjung Pelepas, Yantian and Xiamen.
• Singapore Airlines debuted the first of its new A380 airplanes last month. Singapore Airlines has configured the aircraft in a 471-seat layout, even though it has the potential to hold 853 people in full economy class configuration.

* TEU stands for 'twenty-foot equivalent unit'; a measure of volume based on the size of a container that is twenty feet long by eight feet wide by eight feet high.

** There will be a total of eight of these mammoth ships, with the last one due for delivery to Mærsk Line in January 2008.

Oh, and then we haven't even discussed SNACK CULTURE infiltrating banking (ING Direct, anyone?) or hotels (from Ginger Hotels to Yotel to Qbic)... Needless to say, we’re truly looking forward to your transient, SNACK CULTURE innovations in 2008. Let us know, so that we can include them in our 2009 overview ;-)

• SNACK CULTURE meets 'Instant Gratification 2.0': the growing number of sophisticated SEE-HEAR-BUY services that enable consumers to instantly purchase anything virtual they see or hear. Best example to watch in 2008: the iTunes WiFi Music Store. How it works: when a user hears a particular song playing at his or her local Starbucks, he/she can instantly find the artist, album and name of the track on his iPhone or iPod Touch. By tapping the Starbucks button in either device's main menu, the current song shows up, as well as the last ten songs played. They can be purchased and downloaded instantly via Starbucks' wifi connection.
  
• Amazon.com's just-launched Kindle, a digital book reading device, is going after the same market for the written word, with books and (international or niche) paper-based magazines as the most desirable 'must have right now' items. (We're not sure about charging for otherwise free blogs, though ;-)

• However, taking the SEE-HEAR-BUY trend one step further is Midomi; anyone who's ever had a song stuck in his or her head (and who hasn't?) but was unable to place the title or artist is bound to think Midomi pure genius. Users need only sing, hum or whistle a few bars into their computer microphones, and this online search engine can match the tune against its ever-growing musical library. The customer then has the option to purchase the track and can connect with others who share the same musical interests. Currently available in six languages and with more than two million licensed music tracks and a growing collection of user-created files, Midomi still has lots of potential for further enhancements, such as allowing for customers to call Midomi and download songs directly to their mobile devices.

So... Who's going to build similar SEE-HEAR-BUY services in 2008 for looking up movies, television shows and even commercials by just saying a few lines? And how will these instant gratification services further shape expectations among demanding, INFOLUSTY consumers? More on this in our January 2008 Briefing, which will highlight the EXPECTATION ECONOMY. Stay tuned ;-)